Hi

    If the FOTA series goes ahead and i can't see it not given the current situation how long do people think the FIA series will survive?

Logic dictates that sponsors are going to put their money where the action is and not an also ran championship.   I believe that if the FOTA series does go ahead it will completely undermine the FOM series, teams and sponsors will quickly migrate  leaving Max and Bernie with SFA. 

So what do people think the future holds.  The only thing that will stop the split niow is a complete and utter unconditional surrender of Max and Bernie. 

madmickey:

Hi

    If the FOTA series goes ahead and i can't see it not given the current situation how long do people think the FIA series will survive?

Logic dictates that sponsors are going to put their money where the action is and not an also ran championship.   I believe that if the FOTA series does go ahead it will completely undermine the FOM series, teams and sponsors will quickly migrate  leaving Max and Bernie with SFA. 

So what do people think the future holds.  The only thing that will stop the split niow is a complete and utter unconditional surrender of Max and Bernie. 

If it goes ahead according to what I've read today I think myf1dream.com might just be getting a call and a heavy subsidy

I can't see that FIA/FOM will ever allow the FOTA teams to break away. There is simply too much to lose. Logic says that they will do whatever it takes to stop this from happening (and, realistically, we all know roughly what the it is).

The outcome will be good for just about everybody, bar a very small group of individuals. 

ZakspeedF1:

I can't see that FIA/FOM will ever allow the FOTA teams to break away. There is simply too much to lose. Logic says that they will do whatever it takes to stop this from happening (and, realistically, we all know roughly what the it is).

The outcome will be good for just about everybody, bar a very small group of individuals. 

I'm still of the opinion that as things stand the FIA/FOM dont have the luxury of making the decision, I'd prefer a breakaway, but if Max goes, and there's a huge change in governance, coupled with FOTA having more of a say over the distribution of revenues, that the rules are modified and made less prone to interpretation and more transparent, and the teams are given a say on where races could be held I could live with that, but, just as you point out (rightfully so) that there's to much to lose, for the "other side", there must be an equal amount to win.

stigga:

I'm still of the opinion that as things stand the FIA/FOM dont have the luxury of making the decision, I'd prefer a breakaway, but if Max goes, and there's a huge change in governance, coupled with FOTA having more of a say over the distribution of revenues, that the rules are modified and made less prone to interpretation and more transparent, and the teams are given a say on where races could be held I could live with that, but, just as you point out (rightfully so) that there's to much to lose, for the "other side", there must be an equal amount to win.

I agree with most of that but...

(a) I don't see it as win/lose because now that FOTA have played their hand, there is a massive incentive for change on the FIA/FOM side. In fact, it has become an absolute necessity for them - F1 without FOTA will be a financial disaster. And I don't believe it when people say that Max can't be ousted. On the other hand, FOTA can probably get nearly everything they are asking for (no sensible person expects everything) without the hassle of going it alone.

(b) Personally, I don't think a breakaway series really is the best solution. Yes, it looks like an effective 'big stick' for FOTA but it would always be a horribly unstable thing IMHO

madmickey:

Hi

    If the FOTA series goes ahead and i can't see it not given the current situation how long do people think the FIA series will survive?

Logic dictates that sponsors are going to put their money where the action is and not an also ran championship.   I believe that if the FOTA series does go ahead it will completely undermine the FOM series, teams and sponsors will quickly migrate  leaving Max and Bernie with SFA. 

So what do people think the future holds.  The only thing that will stop the split niow is a complete and utter unconditional surrender of Max and Bernie. 

I agree, if FOTA go ahead, it is not looking good for F1 as we know it. But that does not mean that F1 could not re-invent itself and come up with something even better and more viable. Getting out of the aerodynamic arms race would be a start which would reduce cost and provide better racing.

I am not convinced that FOTA can get their series off the ground financially. Do your own figures, but from what I know, the current FOTA teams $2.2 billion, while CVC gets $550 million, which is 1/3 of the profit generated by FOM.

That means FOTA could hope for a maximum of $750 million, cutting out the FIA share as well. But that would mean that FOTA can achieve as many and as good as TV and sponsorship deals, and also deals with the tracks. I would not think this is likely in the first year.

Also FOTA have said they would want cheaper tickets for fans. Taking Silverstone, they said that without government money they could only pay 50% of what Ecclestone is asking for. If you reduce the income from tickets, this would be even less.

In addition there will be legal cases around sponsors, tracks, and the series in general. So it seems questionable whether many people would commit to the FOTA series until these court cases are settled, creating a big question mark.

So the question is how much profit could FOTA achieve in their first year? It had to be at least half of the current revenue for the teams to get as much as they do from the current F1.

Let's assume they could even match the profit, how much would be in it for each team? Assuming FOTA will be a fair platform, so all teams get the same, and assuming there would be 10 teams, then each team would get $150 million, or $75 million more than they get now.

I would think they could be glad if they can equal what they have now. And that assumes that they can keep all their current sponsors, which is not likely. But this would also apply if the teams would stay in F1.

ZakspeedF1:

stigga:

I'm still of the opinion that as things stand the FIA/FOM dont have the luxury of making the decision, I'd prefer a breakaway, but if Max goes, and there's a huge change in governance, coupled with FOTA having more of a say over the distribution of revenues, that the rules are modified and made less prone to interpretation and more transparent, and the teams are given a say on where races could be held I could live with that, but, just as you point out (rightfully so) that there's to much to lose, for the "other side", there must be an equal amount to win.

I agree with most of that but...

(a) I don't see it as win/lose because now that FOTA have played their hand, there is a massive incentive for change on the FIA/FOM side. In fact, it has become an absolute necessity for them - F1 without FOTA will be a financial disaster. And I don't believe it when people say that Max can't be ousted. On the other hand, FOTA can probably get nearly everything they are asking for (no sensible person expects everything) without the hassle of going it alone.

(b) Personally, I don't think a breakaway series really is the best solution. Yes, it looks like an effective 'big stick' for FOTA but it would always be a horribly unstable thing IMHO

I agree with you zak.  FIA/FOM need the FOTA teams, and of course Max can be ousted, it just needs the vote to go against him.  I don't know how that can be orchestrated though.

I think the best outcome would be for FIA/FOM to give as much as it takes to satisfy FOTA, and persuade them to stay.

Having said that, I must say the proposed calendar for FOTA next year, as per a thread by stigga, looks very exciting!

ZakspeedF1:

stigga:

I'm still of the opinion that as things stand the FIA/FOM dont have the luxury of making the decision, I'd prefer a breakaway, but if Max goes, and there's a huge change in governance, coupled with FOTA having more of a say over the distribution of revenues, that the rules are modified and made less prone to interpretation and more transparent, and the teams are given a say on where races could be held I could live with that, but, just as you point out (rightfully so) that there's to much to lose, for the "other side", there must be an equal amount to win.

I agree with most of that but...

(a) I don't see it as win/lose because now that FOTA have played their hand, there is a massive incentive for change on the FIA/FOM side. In fact, it has become an absolute necessity for them - F1 without FOTA will be a financial disaster. And I don't believe it when people say that Max can't be ousted. On the other hand, FOTA can probably get nearly everything they are asking for (no sensible person expects everything) without the hassle of going it alone.

(b) Personally, I don't think a breakaway series really is the best solution. Yes, it looks like an effective 'big stick' for FOTA but it would always be a horribly unstable thing IMHO

I take your point about the incentive, there's probably never been a bigger one, I would say that F1 without FOTA will almost certainly fail, I just cant see sponsors signing up to it with teams of (relatively) unknowns bolstered by WIlliams and Force India, and that assumes that Force India stays.

On a side note, whilst looking at some of the newer teams likely to sign up with the FIA I've been reading about the "money man" behind the Manor entry, he has a string of no less than 10 companies that have been either dissolved, or struck off, but, he has influential friends within the FIA, its a matter of public record that he helped Max's mate Alan Donnelly (the FIA's full time advisor to the stewards, and Max's "reperesentative") make an alleged £460,000, from a stake of £1,250, via an investment in a dot com company that ultimately failed, thats quite a profit eh £458, 750. And whilst Team Principal John Booth has at various times managed or had driving for him the likes of Kimi Raikkonen,Christian Horner and Lewis Hamilton in their early careers I have serious doubts (for reasons I wont go into) about his abilities and longevity when it comes to running an F1 team.

I think a FOTA series could be unstable, and volatile, but I think most people would say they've done a decent job so far, Max has been wrong about their determination on so many counts, one poster suggested Max was calling their bluff,  I cant help but think today how many people wonder just who's "bluff" has been called. I think FOTA not only looks like an effective big stick, it also (to me at at least) looks like not only a viable alternative, but quite possibly the only option if we want to watch "the pinnacle" of motor racing.

I was always of the opinion that Max couldn't be ousted, and then when FOTA formed and as things have  progressed I altered that view, I took the view that even the FIA wouldn't be so stupid as to "choose" Max over F1, today however I think they just might be that stupid, even if a vote of confidence was proposed, Max has recruited and favoured those with a vote so well I think he might survive it again, what chance has F1 got when those asked to vote on its survival represent organisations like the Zimbabwean Yak Herders Caravanners Association, anyway, perhaps we'll know a little more by the end of today, I hope I'm wrong, but I'm guessing Max will still be presiding over the FIA come tomorrow, mores the pity. 

Thankfully stigga you were being way to pessimistic this time !!

And, on reflection, it is good to see that they (seem to) have allowed him a gentlemanly way out (i.e. one which isn't transparently humiliating - few people will realise that Max is no longer running F1 as of today). Contrast that with Max and Bernie's normal "Art of War" strategy. 

I think we all knew that the leverage was the potential loss of revenue to FIA and FOM but another sure sign of what was to follow was the consistency in FOTA's stance compared to Max and Bernie's. With a few minor exceptions, FOTA never deviated from their position. In the last few days, Max and Bernie were all over the place - a sure sign that they feared they were losing the argument. I'd like to think that we F1 fans and forumeers played a small part in raising the pressure on them.

I must admit though, I'm just a teeny bit dissapointed that we aren't having a breakaway series. It would have been unstable but it was an exciting prospect - and I liked the calendar!

ZakspeedF1:

Thankfully stigga you were being way to pessimistic this time !!

And, on reflection, it is good to see that they (seem to) have allowed him a gentlemanly way out (i.e. one which isn't transparently humiliating - few people will realise that Max is no longer running F1 as of today). Contrast that with Max and Bernie's normal "Art of War" strategy. 

I think we all knew that the leverage was the potential loss of revenue to FIA and FOM but another sure sign of what was to follow was the consistency in FOTA's stance compared to Max and Bernie's. With a few minor exceptions, FOTA never deviated from their position. In the last few days, Max and Bernie were all over the place - a sure sign that they feared they were losing the argument. I'd like to think that we F1 fans and forumeers played a small part in raising the pressure on them.

I must admit though, I'm just a teeny bit dissapointed that we aren't having a breakaway series. It would have been unstable but it was an exciting prospect - and I liked the calendar!

Once again I agree with you fully, zak.  At the end of the day, it was all about the money.  FOTA stood firm, while M&B wavered.  And I think you are right in giving a wee bit of the credit to the F1 fans, there was more than one comment to the effect that at least 80% of fans were supporting FOTA.  Bernie would have to take that into account.

I too am a little bit disappointed about not getting the breakaway - it was exciting, and the calendar looked pretty good!

ZakspeedF1:

Thankfully stigga you were being way to pessimistic this time !!

And, on reflection, it is good to see that they (seem to) have allowed him a gentlemanly way out (i.e. one which isn't transparently humiliating - few people will realise that Max is no longer running F1 as of today). Contrast that with Max and Bernie's normal "Art of War" strategy. 

I think we all knew that the leverage was the potential loss of revenue to FIA and FOM but another sure sign of what was to follow was the consistency in FOTA's stance compared to Max and Bernie's. With a few minor exceptions, FOTA never deviated from their position. In the last few days, Max and Bernie were all over the place - a sure sign that they feared they were losing the argument. I'd like to think that we F1 fans and forumeers played a small part in raising the pressure on them.

I must admit though, I'm just a teeny bit dissapointed that we aren't having a breakaway series. It would have been unstable but it was an exciting prospect - and I liked the calendar!

Yes so it seems, for once I'm relatively happy to be proven wrong and yes I thought they went rather easy on him, certainly easier than he would have made it for anyone else I suspect, and thats to their credit I think.

I agree with you on the lack of deviation, I've seen a poster elsewhere say something similar, in fact, I'll post it here.

Max: We will announce the entry list tommorrow.
Fota: We are going ahead with the breakaway, if the fia choose to accept our conditions, we will reevaluate.
Max: We will sue.
Fota: same as before
Max: these loons will come around once we sue them
Fota: same as before
Max: I will stand for election again
Fota: we will announce details of the series later this week
Max: I surrender unconditionally,

I've had to edit out the bit that came after the word "unconditionally, I doubt the mods would have allowed it, just think whips and you wont be far wrong

As I've said elsewhere, I'm dissapointed, but thats life, "win some lose some", as they say and I dare say the situation might well be revisited again in the future. If today has any bearing on making the sport fairer, more innovative, and a bit more exciting that will be consolation enough for me, I'm glad FOTA retained their strength to the end, it bodes well for the future

Yes, I didn't mean 'us' as in this forum but F1 fans as a whole. It's nice to think that anyway!

Talking of piling on the pressure, did you notice how in the post-race chats they kept getting comments from the F1 people interviewed (most of them BRDC members, I think) about how wonderful Silverstone was and what a pity... etc etc. They were all so 'on message' I find it hard to believe it wasn't planned! 

LOL! All over the shop - how can he be taken seriously now?

And BTW, you have done a great job digging up and analysing the vast amount of info that has been out there in the last few weeks. Cheers stigga - top job

ZakspeedF1:

LOL! All over the shop - how can he be taken seriously now?

And BTW, you have done a great job digging up and analysing the vast amount of info that has been out there in the last few weeks. Cheers stigga - top job

Cheers Zakspeed

ZakspeedF1:

LOL! All over the shop - how can he be taken seriously now?

And BTW, you have done a great job digging up and analysing the vast amount of info that has been out there in the last few weeks. Cheers stigga - top job

I agree, excellent job, stigga.  It must have taken a lot of time and effort on your part, much appreciated, thank you.